Beto O’Rourke Wants Brown County’s Vote, But Will He Get It?

Beto Orourke

“I can tell by the conversation that we are probably not going to agree,” Congressman Beto O’Rourke said as he wrapped up an interview with Leland Acker and Larry Mathis on The Morning News on News/Talk 102.3 KXYL in Brownwood, Tex., “But I want us to be able to discuss our differences civilly, and work together to find solutions.”

O’Rourke’s appearance on The Morning News marked the second time he has directly approached Brown County Voters, which is a huge and risky investment of time and resources considering that the man he is challenging for U.S. Senate overwhelmingly won Brown County in the 2012 general election. The first time O’Rourke approached Brown County voters was a visit to The Turtle restaurant, where he met with a few dozen voters, many of whom expressed skepticism of his campaign.

During the meeting at The Turtle, one voter asked him if he thought he could win, to which O’Rourke admitted to facing an uphill battle.

“I still have to convince my mother to vote for me,” he said. “She’s a Republican.”

On The Morning News, Monday, O’Rourke took a more serious tone.

“There is something happening in the electorate,” he said. “People are becoming more involved. Things are changing, and I want to be a part of that.”

O’Rourke noted that as he holds town-hall meetings across the state, he is being greeted by conservative Republicans, people he concedes will probably not vote for him, but who still want to discuss issues with him.

The attention O’Rourke’s campaign has drawn from both Democrats and Republicans has energized the Texas Democratic Party, a party that has not won a statewide election since 1994. O’Rourke boasts that he has out-raised his opponent, Republican Ted Cruz, despite not receiving any PAC money. His campaign gives some Democrats hope that their party can win at least one statewide race this year, and begin a blue tidal wave to convert Texas to a center-left state.

That’s a hope that is a long shot, if not an impossibility, according to Rice University’s Mark Jones who told KXYL’s Morning News back during the primary season that Texas Democrats will probably not break their losing streak this year.

If O’Rourke achieves the impossible and wins the general election, it won’t be because Brown County voted for him. Brown County voted 85 percent in favor of Republican Ted Cruz during the 2012 general election, and has voted at least 70 percent Republican in the general elections following the election of President George W. Bush in 2008.

The county voted overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney in 2016, and a national media story recently showed how Brown County voters still supported President Donald Trump a year after his election.

Combine this with the fact that O’Rourke is a liberal Democrat, as opposed to a blue-dog Democrat, and his chances of carrying Brown County nearly vanish.

As they wrapped up the interview, Acker rapid-fired several hot-button issues at O’Rourke, who explained that he favored an assault rifle ban, universal healthcare, universal background checks for gun purchases, supported abortion and opposed fetal pain bills.

His positions on those issues mean that he likely will not carry Brown County, or any rural Republican counties this fall. Then again, he may not have to.

Politics in Texas today involves turning out your base in greater numbers than your opponent. To win on a statewide level, O’Rourke could win the metropolitan areas that traditionally vote Democrat, while skimming away 10-20 percent of rural voters in order to achieve an improbable victory. Such a victory would require a perfect storm of intense urban voter turnout and rural apathy, but underdog political parties have won in Texas before. Google Bill Clements.

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